An analysis of birth intervals by considering hazard rates

S. B. BHARDWAJ, S. P. SINGH and G. C. SHARMA¹

Directorate of Experiment Station,

G. B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology,

Pantnagar – 263 145 (U.S. Nagar, Uttarakhand).

¹ Principal Scientist,

Project Directorate of Cropping Systems Research,

ICAR, Modipuram (U.P.)

ABSTRACT

Many authors have studied the probability models in fertility particularly in birth intervals and parity specific fertility rates involving stochastic processes and renewal theory during the recent years. Such studies have played important roles in fertility analysis. In the proposed study, an attempt has been made to look into the phenomenon of parity progression from reliability or survival point of view based on the models for hazard rates obtained by Pachal (1992), wherein it has been assumed that fertility rates decline uniformly by parity.  The hazard rates decline gradually with advancement in parity. Distribution of women in the first parity with respect to the time of birth and hazard rate of births for first parity has been obtained from a cohort of 313 females. Lateron a comparative analysis between observed mean and standard deviation to the expected mean and standard deviation of the time interval also has been done.